Today David Bradshaw commented in Ovum's Hotnews (its a great service, but needs a subscription, so no link) that the exuberant valuations being touted for Facebook are a good indicator that a 2.0 bubble could be about to burst. Unlike every other voice in the market, David doesn't think Facebook is the answer to all of mankind's woes (I agree, but I suspect the Facebook story has still got legs).

David says:

Web 2.0 is a widely hyped term, but if it means anything it is greater collaboration between users mediated by the web. Social networking is one element of this but only one - but other sites are more centred on collaboration. Indeed, two of the largest successes of Web 1.0 - Amazon and EBay - were successful because they mediated collaboration between buyers and sellers.

Its an interesting differentiation to draw. Mediating between buyers and sellers with an underlying desire to trade is a traditional business brought onto the web, whereas mediating between individuals who simply hangout and create a crowd is 'just' a media business (depending on the size of the crowd). The key is how big is the 'just' in that sentence. If Facebook becomes the default conduit for consumer demand to reach supply, in the way that Google has become that conduit in search, then the just is very big one indeed.

He concludes:

It's therefore my view that Facebook is no more than a step along the way and that there's something further to come. Maybe we need bubble 2.0 to burst before we can get to that - but let's hope not.

Agreed, let's hope not!