Remember 2000 and the steep, steep curve on those e-commerce adoption graphs touted by analysts at the time? I get deja vu every time I look at the curves on online advertising graphs today. (Yes, its better underpinned but that's a whole different blog...)

McKinsey has just published an article that agrees with the basic shape of the online advertising curve but - interestingly - highlights some industry bottlenecks that will stop advertisers from being able to part with their online advertising dollars as easily and quickly as they might otherwise wish.

So where's the bottleneck?

The agency world carry a share of responsibility. There simply aren't enough agencies who understand the mechanics of online campaigns. So clients are using multiple agencies and trying to achieve integration between their different suppliers. Which seldom works as it should, even within a big conglomerate group.

Nor are there enough agencies who really want to get deep into the minutae of media buying in an online environment. Booking that Superbowl TV ad really was a great way to do a year's worth of work in just a few seconds - in a matter of minutes its booked, the gzillion dollar budget is spent, now where to for lunch?

I exaggerate of course, but trawling through the weeds of multiple, niche online properties is definitely a more tedious proposition. For this you need a specialist and today there aren't enough to go round. The consolidation of digital agencies by their bigger brethren backs up this assertion.

The fragmented nature of media properties compounds this problem. Outside the major online properties there is little comparability between sites and patchy, inconsistent measurement is applied. For campaigns outside the B2C world, aiming at narrower niche audiences, especially in B2B, a real depth of understanding of individual online media and their status among the target audiences is required. The level of focus needed to offer clients this degree of detail often defeats mainstream media agencies.

I've come from a life spent primarily in the B2B and vertical trade press environment and I'd actually argue that most large media buying agencies were always pretty weak in these areas. The arrival of online has simply exposed their weaknesses.

Innovation itself is also presenting new barriers. Consumer generated content might be The Next Big Thing - and offer a great diversion for a generation of students looking for their 15 minutes of online fame - but its also a deeply scary world for marketing managers working in largely risk averse corporations. Rather than gamble with their brands being placed alongside consumer generated content of dubious taste or morality, advertisers will stick to online's equivalent of Main Street. All of which will focus demand upon a narrower range of safe, stable online inventory, driving up prices and restricting the options open to advertisers.

The positive dimension is that the demand is massive. Agencies and online media property owners have a big incentive to fix these bottlenecks.

So, if you work in a small or medium-sized digital agency for whom integration is second nature, one that loves trawling through the weeds of niche audiences and making highly focused online media selection - or, if you work in an online media property that stands a chance of lifting its head and shoulders above its peer group and becoming the default choice in its category - then in both cases the future is looking good.